Despite all evidence to the contrary, US consumers expect 2015 to be a fantastic year for stocks, wages, employment, and housing prices. From ZeroHedge:

UMich Consumer Sentiment surged to 98.2 – smashing expectations of 94.1 by the most in almost 2 years. This is the highest sentiment since February 2004…!!This all seems very odd… especially in light of the dismal retail sales data and weak wage growth (and we note this is the preliminary print). Inflation expectations plunged to 2.4% (from 2.8%) – the lowest since 2010. American optimism remains unphased as a majority (55.2%) now expect higher wages in the next year (despite earninsg [sic] actually dropping!!)

Whenever I post a news article, I always bring it back down to the individual level to give you a takeaway that will help you improve your financial life. So what can this survey teach you?

Nobody can predict the future. The coming year may turn out to be a great year all around. I can tell you why I’m not quite that optimistic about it, but that misses the point. The point is that optimism of this kind leads to overspending and undersaving.

This kind of thinking is exactly what contributed to my credit and debt problems a few years ago. I didn’t manage my spending well because I was in the process of starting a business that I thought would generate enough money to pay off all my credit cards really soon. But that didn’t happen, and I kept spending based on my predictions about the future rather than the current reality. I’m going to write a big post about this next week that will explain how my philosophy changed as a result.

You know how it ended for me: I maxed out my credit cards, a problem compounded by the fact that my identity had been stolen; my business failed; and my financial life came crashing down around me. That was a turning point in my life. I devoted myself to learning everything there is to know about credit repair and building good credit. I completely changed my relationship with money and credit. My scores rebounded to the point where I was able to get a loan for a new business venture, and now I’m sitting pretty with great credit, great financial habits, and the ability to help other people do what I did.

If you are making spending decisions in the present based on your expectations of a stronger economy in 2015 (or a raise, a promotion, winning the lottery, or whatever), you need to step back and reassess. As the survey above clearly demonstrates, we are by nature too optimistic. It’s in our DNA or something. Don’t be so arrogant as to think you are immune to this. Become a student of current reality, and make your financial decisions based on the present.

Do this and you will prosper.